QUOTE
Just six short months ago President Obama and Chancellor Merkel,
presided over a formidable coalition of globalists committed to
transforming the Western world, including also Britain’s Prime
Minister David Cameron, France’s President François Hollande, and
Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. United by a common ideology,
these Western leaders were busy ushering in a transformative era of
unfettered and massive migration of Arab Muslims and African’s into
Europe and the US.
Now Merkel stands alone. Obama exits the world stage next
month, Cameron resigned after the Brexit vote, Hollande announced
last week that he would not seek re-election, and as of the weekend,
Renzi has also announced his resignation.
According to the
NY Times, Merkel
once untouchable, now seems vulnerable in next year’s
elections. And far-right parties are also seeking power in
France. In Austria, the Green Party stalled the advance of
populist forces on Sunday by defeating the presidential
candidate of the far-right Freedom Party, which was established
by former Nazis. The result in Austria might have calmed some
nerves, but it was the rejection of Mr. Renzi that most sent
shivers through Europe and the world.
In a strategic blunder that echoed David Cameron’s call for a
“Brexit” referendum, Mr. Renzi had tied his government’s tenure
to Sunday’s vote when he was flying high in the polls. But his
support eroded, and world leaders anxiously watched the vote in
Italy, the fourth-largest economy in Europe and a key player in
the European Union, as a referendum on Mr. Renzi’s centrist
government and as a barometer on the strength of
anti-establishment winds blowing across both sides of the
Atlantic.
Sunday’s rejection of Renzi’s referendum and his subsequent
resignation has created a political crisis in Italy that could
spread across the Eurozone. Like Americans last month, Italian
voters were furious about their dismal economic prospects and the
migrant crisis that has engulfed them, as it has all of Europe.
Voters were emphatic in expressing their anger and opposition to
establishment elites, globalization, open borders and the overreach
of the EU.
Early projections point to a decisive defeat of the measure with
the Yes vote at 39–43% and the No at 57–61%. After learning of the
projected results on Sunday, Renzi said he would tell a Cabinet
meeting on Monday afternoon that he will resign.
According to the NY Times, “As was the case with Brexit,
there is a feeling of us versus them — of wealthy experts telling
voters what to think without really understanding the despair that
stalks families who feel enough is enough. Like many Greeks,
Italians feel they are sheltering far more than their fair share of
refugees and immigrants. To say the country is pessimistic is
putting it lightly.”
Younger Italians in particular voted “NO” overwhelmingly, and for
good reason. Unemployment among Young Italians has been
hovering at around 40%, forcing many to seek a job abroad and
leaving those who remain embittered at what they perceived to be an
elite, ineffective and remote government.
Experts are now fearful that uncertainty provoked by a
political crisis in Italy could spark panic across the eurozone,
and Italy may even end up leaving the euro and returning to the
lira. (here)
The results in Italy are certain to reverberate across a European
Union already buffeted by political upheaval and anti-establishment
movements. Such movements have already unraveled traditional
political structures in Greece and Spain, and led Britain to vote in
June to leave the European Union.
Europeans on the continent have watched the U.S. election and the
Brexit and Italian referendums closely, and leaders of right-wing
movements in France, Germany, and the Netherlands holding elections
in the coming year hope to get a boost from the momentum generated
by these victories. Next I review their prospects (see
here).
Dutch general election: March 15, 2017
Geert Wilders, a controversial member of the Dutch parliament
known for his criticism of Islam and immigration has been favored to
become the Netherland’s next Prime Minister. Wilders is currently
awaiting a verdict on charges of inciting hatred after leading a
chant at a rally calling for the Netherlands to accept fewer
Moroccan immigrants(!). He has vowed to call a referendum on Dutch
EU membership and to end immigration from Muslim countries. But he
faces difficulties because the Netherlands relies on coalition
governments and most political parties have sworn not to work with
him.
Nevertheless, Wilders’ Freedom Party is topping current polls
ahead of the parliamentary elections, and the momentum of his
movement is evident. For example, Dutch members of parliament
recently voted to ban the burqa, an Islamic face covering, from
public places. Like Austria’s Hofer, Wilders has cited Trump’s
election as an example for Europe. “The lesson for Europeans is look
at America. What America can do, we can do as well.”
French presidential election. April 23, 2017, May 7,
2017
National Front leader Marine Le Pen and Republicans’ candidate
Francois Fillon are now the two main contenders to become France’s
next President. As a result of Fillon’s recent primary victory,
analysts say voters are being heavily influenced by Brexit and the
election of Donald Trump in the United States. Fillon, a former
prime minister under President Nicolas Sarkozy, was the more
conservative of two top candidates running for president in France’s
Republican Party primary elections. Analysts say his victory
points to a clear swing to the right among French voters, a trend
that was already visible in the rise of Marine Le Pen’s far-right,
anti-immigrant National Front, whose popularity ratings soared after
a series of terrorist attacks in Paris, Nice and elsewhere in
France.
Le Pen has a strong Eurosceptic, anti-Islam stance and has
pledged to hold a referendum on France’s membership of the EU.
However, she still faces an uphill task to clinch the top job
because of the nature of France’s voting system, which requires
candidates to win more than 50% of the electorate over a two-round
process. Polling conducted earlier this year indicates that the
controversial FN chief will eventually lose to the conservative
candidate Fillon by a comfortable margin in the second part of the
contest. Fillon has promised to cut taxes, to slash jobs in the
public sector, to curb union power, and to clamp down on Islamists.
Analysts predict that Fillon should easily beat Le Pen, taking over
from hapless socialist President François Hollande.
Regardless of the results, the fact that a third or more of
French voters are now prepared to back a candidate who advocates
dismantling the EU project terrifies the Brussels elite who are
struggling to comprehend the surging populist tide on its
doorstep. As a sign of the growing panic concerning the fate of the
EU project, the current French prime minister Manuel Valls admitted
for the first time that a Le Pen victory is “possible.” Martin
Selmayr, the right-hand man of Brussels chief Jean-Claude Juncker,
summed up the EU’s feeling towards the FN leader and other
eurosceptics when he tweeted that her election would be a “horror
scenario.”
German federal election: September 2017
Angela Merkel is running for a fourth term as Chancellor but
faces increasing resistance from the anti-EU Alternative for Germany
(AfD). While a Merkel victory would support the status quo, a shock
victory for AfD would see the reintroduction of German border
controls, strict sanctions on Muslims and a referendum on EU
membership. Like most European leaders, Ms Merkel has faced heavy
criticism over her open-door migrant policy. Frauke Petry, a
41-year-old mother of four, has challenged Merkel’s open-door
immigration policy. Petry would limit asylum applications to 200,000
a year, and is seeking a ban on the funding of mosques, declaring
‘Islam does not belong in Germany’. In a recent regional election,
her hardline Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party pushed Merkel’s
Christian Democratic Party into third place.
As in countries throughout the EU, Merkel’s decline is directly
linked to increasing popular resistance to massive waves of
immigrants. Many voters feel that hosting migrants in their
communities is a burden imposed by well-insulated liberal elites who
do not care about the consequences. Here is a typical reaction from
one disgruntled voter:
Watching 800,000 uninvited illegal migrants wander into the
country, and seeing Germany allow these people to ignore the law
and do what they wanted, I realized that countries that can’t
control their borders — or won’t because of misguided naïve
ideas about “human rights” — are doomed unless the people who
pay the taxes and make things work have some say in the matter.
It is a new “silent majority” that has been cowed into
submission by a liberal press and cowardly politicians. Time to
end this.
In fact, over a million migrants have arrived in Germany since
last year.
The E.U. certainly can’t withstand a German exit or even a
retreat from E.U. leadership. And make no mistake—Angela Merkel,
still the person best able to provide that leadership, is now
weaker politically than at any point over her decade-plus career
as Germany’s chancellor. Merkel is still widely believed to run
(and win) those elections, but the more problems mount, the more
likely Merkel bows out. The odds-on favorite to replace her
would be Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, a fiscal hawk whose
standoffish demeanor would do little to boost E.U. solidarity.
(see
here)
UNQUOTE
